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Stampa Stampa
48

CORONAVIRUS, QUANDO L’INFORMAZIONE “DÀ I NUMERI”


Breve analisi sugli errori commessi dai media nel presentare i dati sull’andamento della diffusione del Covid-19 nel nostro Paese

 di Patrizia FULCINITI e Gianni PAONE

PRESERRE (CZ) – 3 OTTOBRE 2020 –  È doveroso premettere che si scrive non ha competenze mediche, virologiche, immunologiche, biologiche. Chi scrive si occupa di poesia, di narrativa, di didattica ma è animato da una passione per i numeri e dalla consapevolezza che qualsiasi notizia possa essere data ponendo l’enfasi sugli aspetti positivi o negativi. Poiché noi siamo positivi, nel senso del pensiero non delle infezioni virali, abbiamo ritenuto opportuno scrivere quanto segue.

Prima di procedere in questa breve analisi sui grossolani errori commessi dai media sull’andamento della diffusione del Covid-19 nel nostro Paese, è opportuno concordare sui termini, utilizzati da giornali e TV, nel presentare i dati. 

Guarito: rimesso in salute, che ha riacquistato la salute (dizionario Treccani).

 Positivo: si dice del risultato di un’analisi di laboratorio o di un esame clinico quando conferma la presenza degli elementi ricercati (dizionario Garzanti).

Contagio: la trasmissione di una malattia infettiva dalla persona malata ad una sana (dizionario Treccani)

Ne consegue che il termine “guarito” è antitetico a quello di “positivo” in quanto il “guarito” non è più, appunto, persona malata in grado di trasmettere la malattia infettiva.

Da mesi assistiamo, ogni seradopo le 17.30, alle notizie e ai numeri che fotografano la situazione giornaliera dell’andamento del Covid-19 in Italia.

Si tratta di tabelle che riportano sinteticamente i dati della diffusione del coronavirus divisi in ricoverati con sintomi, in terapia intensiva, in isolamento domiciliare (tre raggruppamenti che rappresentano il totale dei positivi di quel giorno), il numero dei decessi e, infine, il numero dei guariti.

La cosa che risulta sorprendente è che, ogni giorno, sistematicamente, l’informazione relativa al totale dei positivi rilevatidefiniscenuovi contagiciò che risulta dalla somma di tutti i valori (positivi, decessi e guariti). Il che, sinceramente appare una grossolana operazione di inesattezza informativa.

Prendiamo a titolo esemplificativo i dati divulgati il 2 ottobre dal Ministero della salute/protezione civile

Appare chiaro dalla tabella che il numero dei nuovi positivi è pari a 1350 non a 2.499, numero che corrisponde alla somma di attuali positivi, dimessi/guariti e deceduti (1350+1126+23=2499): i guariti sono stati accomunati ai malati non si capisce per quale misteriosa “alchimia”!

Ancor più chiara e, per certi versi, più rassicurante, la tabella presentata da https://lab.gedidigital.it/che disaggrega il dato degli “attualmente positivi”.

Possiamo vedere come i 2548 casi totali, che i media definiscono nuovi contagi corrispondano alla somma dei 1384 positivi, dei 24 decessi e dei 1140 guariti.

Quindi ogni giorno i media aggiungono ai positivi i guariti e i decessi, facendo lievitare il numero di quelli che correttamente si chiamano “casi totali” ed erroneamente vengono definiti nuovi casi o nuovi contagi.

Questa tendenza a sommare positivi, guariti e deceduti raggruppandoli nelle categoria “nuovi contagi” è un’inesattezza che si reitera sera dopo sera, notiziario dopo notiziario. Non sembra il caso di chiamarla menzogna, perché la menzogna presuppone il dolo, e il dolo presuppone un movente che, ad essere sinceri, ci sfugge visto che non vogliamo negare la pandemia, né minimizzare il problema, né tantomeno fantasticare su improbabili complotti. Ma è certo che ogni inesattezza adombra superficialità e mancanza di attenzione.

Nella rassegna stampa colpiscono alcuni titoli apocalittici tipo, IL VIRUS CHE AVANZA, accompagnato da L’ITALIA RISCHIA UN PICCO DI MORTI e “IL COVID PROSEGUE INESORABILE LA SUA CORSA”.

Ma se osserviamo l’andamento del tasso di letalità possiamo smentire anche questa informazione. Il tasso di letalità (rapporto tra chi contrae una malattia e chi muore a causa della stessa), chein Italia aveva superato il 14,53% (20 giugno) oggi è in diminuzione: il 30 settembre è sceso a 11,40%.

Infine il rapporto tra tamponi e positivi che il 21 aprile (dopo un mese e mezzo di lockdown) era 1 su 10, al 30 settembre è pari a 1 su 34.

Quindi, tutti i giorni, nelle diverse edizioni dei TG, una ridda di numeri avvolge chi ascolta e spera di ricevere conforto e rassicurazioni.  Invece nessuna buona notizia viene fornita a una nazione che ha mostrato rispetto delle regole e infinita pazienza, e non perché dai primi di marzo la situazione non sia migliorata ma perché, così dicono, sta nuovamente peggiorando. E, per rafforzare il concetto, chiamano a testimoniare i numeri perché, lo sappiamo tutti, sono un linguaggio universale e non mentono.

Però i numeri possono allarmare oppure offrire conforto. Se guardiamo la tabella riportata in alto, ci rendiamo conto che sui 1384 nuovi casi il 95,6% è in isolamento domiciliare, il 3,6% è ricoverato con sintomi e lo 0,8% è in terapia intensiva. Inoltre i guariti, per definizione, devono essere usciti dall’isolamento domiciliare o essere stati dimessi da un ospedale per cui il loro numero andrebbe sottratto.

Se eseguiamo la sottrazione tra nuovi positivi e guariti ecco che il numero si assottiglia ulteriormente e il sensazionalismo si modera: come in un libro di cassa dovremmo utilizzare i segni + e – per capire ogni giorno se la bilancia si pieghi dall’una o dall’altra parte.

Quindi dovremmo aver capito chesi può mentire semplicemente presentando un dato in modo grossolano, con superficialità, senza confronti, senza percentuali, senza riferimento alcuno.

Eccesso di semplificazione forse. Oppure ricerca del sensazionalismo. Uno spettro si aggira per l’Europa. È il Covid-Sars2 o la disattenzione dei divulgatori di notizie?

Cui prodest?

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